Inflation Vs Growth

Let me start by defining what Inflation is, the rate at which the general level of prices for goods & services soar which means the purchasing power of the country surge. Generally, a country tries to maintain single digit inflation rate, perhaps very less inflation is also downside for a country. To control the inflation central bank does tighten the monetary policy like increase in the interest rate. Increase in the interest rate has a side effect of curtailing the investment & employment thus the growth slumps. India saw a sharp downfall in growth for about 5 years after higher interest rates during 1995-96. Tussle subsists between Inflation & Growth always in any country, especially developing economies. Substantially in a country there exists one school of thought which says higher interest rate to contain inflation & other lower interest rates for better growth. Bone of contention!! For instance, recently RBI went for 2 subsequent hikes of interest rate with a hike of 25 bps on repo & reverse repo rate on 2^ndof July & another 25 bps on 27^thof July to contain the inflation. But going little bit pragmatic, as expressed earlier higher interest rates can lead to unemployment, so a person would prefer a low paying job with 12% of inflation rather than no job. So I put myself in the second school of thought, higher growth with less interest rate & inflation. But is this possible?

India uses CPI Consumer Price Index for the calculation of Inflation rate. India with over a billion of people, quality food for all seems to be a distant dream. This is predominantly because of higher food prices which a common man finds it difficult to pay. So containing food inflation is the first step towards curbing the inflation in our country. There are two strategies to curtail food inflation keeping the interest rates at bay. This will indeed check the sustainability of the agricultural sector as India is primarily dependent on agriculture.

1. Enhancing the productivity of farms.

2. Improved Public Distribution System (PDS)

Enhancing the productivity of farms:

Our agriculture chiefly depends on monsoon, we are betting on good monsoon this time which can indeed leave a positive impact on food inflation. But chasing monsoon each year is simply unfeasible. So improving on productivity of our farms will give a better yield & thus lower the prices of food. A study predicts that there is 6% increase in water consumption by agriculture sector by 2025. So the sustainability question is how to yield better with less usage of water or resources in genral? First, practice of effective use of resources like water, energy. Average farm size of India is 2.3; with 80% of the farms under 2 hectares. Predominantly Indian agricultural system uses flood irrigation which consumes water thrice more than what it should. So, low cost drip irrigation & use of treadle pump for irrigation is best for small plots. They are cost efficient & consumes less energy & water. Second, investment on R&D on agriculture sector should be increased & effective. For instance china along with researchers in Philippines has come out aerobic rice, a new way of growing rice in water shortage areas. So we should also concentrate on situation based innovation in this sector. For that government should invest on effective R&D. Third, agro business houses should take initiatives to enhance the production of the farms in our country & make it an attractive industry to work in by corporate tie-ups. There is an intimidation for shortage of skilled human resource base for farming as people are migrating to cities for better prospects or national acts such as NREGA which is attracting many farmers. For instance ITC’s agro business has joined hands with ICAR (Indian Council for Agricultural Research) to promote nutrition rich sorghum using e-choupal facilities. This kind of corporate bonding with agriculture would give confidence for the human resource to work & progress. So these 3 main conducts can better enhance the productivity of agricultural farms.

Improved Public Distribution System (PDS):

Despite India ranking 2^nd in the farm output & 2^nd largest producer of vegetables & fruits, food inflation is high. This calls for better supply chain of food products, Public Distribution System. For instance, 17.8 MT of wheat are lying with Food Corp of India (FCI) in open plinths, prices have escalated despite the huge buffer stock. A fresh estimate from the ministry of food processing says a whopping Rs 58,000 crore (Rs 580 billion) worth of agriculture food items get wasted in the country every year. So India seems to be a largest producer of food products but not the largest supplier. There has to be a complete revamp in the current supply chain system. First, Procurement should be done without intermediaries & with complete transparency. Second, Logistics & Warehousing in which the system calls for huge investment. This can be improved by having better cold storage units, silo system for different products, deployment of efficient manpower to take care of the same. Third, Distribution model in which the government has to revamp the way it worked by enabling technology in place. Proper deployment of technology like biometrics can improve on the system by reducing flaws like corruption & authoritative burglaries. So these 3 conducts can better reduce the wastage of food products which is directly proportional to food inflation.

These practices which are not insurmountable can bring about a positive change in growth of our country without having inflation as bane. For a better tomorrow, we ought to follow such sustainable practices to cater the growing population. If small potholes like this along the way are filled, we could easily build a smarter India.

Leadership crisis in India

When I asked a question “what is leadership?” to a class of 38, I got 3 answers, which were totally different from each other. Then I should not be surprised of what Mr. Warren Bennis, leadership expert said, he is aware of at least 860 definitions of leadership. So leadership is all about perception each has as what it is. According to me Leadership is all about POSITIVE ACTION THROUGH POSITIVE ATTITUDE. Now it is not take a genius to recognize what Leadership crisis is. It is collapse of positive action OR positive attitude.

Is India in leadership crisis? I would be criticized when some one hears this question. As everyone is aware that India is rapidly developing to become 2^nd largest economy sooner than later. But my answer will be a strong YES. Strange, then read yourself to understand where India is.

Government, Sports, Spiritual Institutions, Educational Institutions, Corporate & name any in India, is all shaken with scandals. The monetary situation in our country is so weak that the fiscal deficit is pegging at 6% summing up to 3.5 lakh cr of deficit(Rediff business, march 02 2010). The food inflation which directly affects common people like u & me is at 12.92 (data released on July 1st). Recent hike in the fuel prices which will add to the soaring inflation rate. If a leader wants a separate state then start a hunger strike, act of democracy. Although huge amount of monetary is spent on education the literacy of our country looks dismal. Recent Bhopal tragedy hearing left all Indians thwarted proving India to be No Action Talk Only country, NATO country. The above substantiations are just examples from recent past which clearly shows the LEADERSHIP CRISIS in India.

This article has 3 different stories explaining how the government, sports, business is need of leaders of Governance, Ethics, innovation. This will lead the country in transforming itself from where it is now.

Leadership in Ethics: Sports;

In 2010 IPL became the only sporting event to be screened in you tube. Its brand value was estimated to be 18000 cr the same year. According to global sports salaries review, IPL is the second highest-paid league, based on first-team salaries on a pro rata basis, second only to the NBA. It is estimated that the average salary of an IPL player over a year would be £2.5 million. The same brand which made each Indian across the planet to be proud made to feel ashamed one fine day. The whole IPL became a cocktail of sports, politics, glamour, money, business. Now BCCI & IPL famous brands of India are in need of complete refurbishment, leaving strong trail of unethical leadership. Is India in search of ETHICAL LEADERS?

Leadership in Governance: FDI handling;

While the economy shifts from west to east, there are number of companies who are wishing to set up their business in India presuming strong growth in future. The question is how much ready is Indian government to handle large monetary inflows. For instance 5 yrs before POSCO steel major Korean steel player signed a deal with centre to set up a steel plant of capacity of 12 mtpa with a monetary inflow of 50000 cr making it a largest FDI in India so far. The technology they wish to bring is very apt to our country, which utilizes Iron ore fines rather than lump & it is a CDM which attracts carbon credits. Moreover project will create 50000 direct & indirect employments with large share in indirect employment. Even after 5 complete yrs there is no progress in the project, as they are yet to ground break. They are still in the process of acquiring the land for the project. So this clearly shows dismal state of our policy of handling FDI. Is India in search of LEADERS IN GOVERNANCE?

Leadership in Business: Innovation;

International Innovative Index is a global index, measuring the level of innovation of a country. India ranks 56^th position out of 130 countries (Livemint March 04, 2010). This is because India spends less than 1% of its GDP on research & development. So is the case with business houses, their spending on research & development is very low when compared with their international counterparts. This also clearly pitches that how corporate have failed in engaging the employee with the business as people are the source of innovation. In India we can count easily the firms which are innovative, for E.g,. 3M India, for their product like scotch brite. TATS motors for their products like Ace, Nano. Are businesses in India need of LEADERS IN INNOVATION?

Yes, India is in need of leaders who can transform. Needless to say India is growing rapidly but the basic question is how sustainable is the development? To have a sustainable development we need to have good leaders who envision a better tomorrow in all terms of the nation. Needless to say if such a leadership crisis pertains throughout our development, India is sure to have its own Lehman brothers in the near future.